Nintendo Cautiously Forecasts Switch 2 Sales Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Nintendo has recently released what industry analysts are describing as a "conservative" sales forecast for the Nintendo Switch 2, amidst ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs. The company announced this morning that it expects to sell 15 million units of the Switch 2 and 45 million game copies during its fiscal year, which ends on March 31, 2026. The much-anticipated Switch 2 is set to hit the market on June 5.

Nintendo's forecast takes into account the U.S. tariff rates that were implemented on April 10 and assumes these rates will remain unchanged throughout the fiscal year. However, the company acknowledged that any alterations to these tariff rates could impact their projections. “We will continue to monitor the situation to respond to changes in market conditions,” Nintendo stated, indicating a proactive approach to potential shifts in the economic landscape.

Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, labeled the 15 million unit forecast as "conservative." In a tweet, Ahmad suggested that Nintendo might be cautiously accounting for uncertainties around tariffs, pricing, and production, despite the strong momentum in pre-orders. He added that Nintendo could potentially revise its forecast upward if the tariff situation improves. However, he highlighted the broader challenges currently affecting the console market, including the ripple effects of existing issues and the looming threat of increased tariffs.

It's noteworthy that achieving 15 million sales in the first year would position the Switch 2 among the most successful console launches ever, surpassing the original Nintendo Switch's impressive first-year sales of 14.87 million units.

The demand for the Nintendo Switch 2 appears to be substantial. Following a delay caused by tariff-related issues, pre-orders for the Switch 2 opened on April 24, with the console's price set at $449.99. The response to the pre-orders was as overwhelming as anticipated. Nintendo also issued a warning to U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store, noting that delivery on the release date is not guaranteed due to the high demand.

For more detailed information on securing your own Switch 2, check out IGN's Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.